Blue Hole New Consumption report, October 15, according to foreign news reports, a new HarrisX poll shows that e-cigarette users could become a powerful force in the 2022 midterm elections in the United States, less than a month away. That could be bad news for Democrats in Congress, most of whom have followed their party's lead and support taxes and flavor restrictions on nicotine-cigarette products.

The poll estimates that 29 percent of all registered voters have vaped in the past 30 days. This is an important part of the voting population that lawmakers and candidates should listen to. Of these, 51 percent vaped daily and 54 percent no longer used combustible tobacco products such as cigarettes and cigars.

Among registered voters who use e-cigarettes surveyed by HarrisX, 68 percent said they were somewhat or very likely to vote for a candidate based solely on their consistency on e-cigarettes. Among those who identify as Democrats, an even higher percentage (79 percent) say they are very likely to vote based on e-cigarette policy alone.

Voters who use e-cigarettes are mostly loyal to their party

Of those surveyed, 65 percent said they would definitely or probably vote in the Nov. 8 election. On top of that, 78% of e-cigarette users surveyed said they were somewhat or very likely to speak out on vaping-related issues. That could make them influential among non-vape voters in their circles.

However, vaping users who identify with both major political parties remain largely loyal to their tribes. Democrats who have used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days generally approve of President Joe Biden's performance (88% vs. 30% of Republican e-cigarette users). Majorities of vape users from both parties say they are likely to vote for their party's congressional candidate (94 percent Democrats, 87 percent Republicans).

The survey, conducted by HarrisX in early October, polled 1,519 registered voters who had used e-cigarette products in the previous 30 days. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

According to HarrisX, the results were weighted by gender, age, income, race/ethnicity, education, and political party within the United States to bring them in line with the actual share of each country's population.

The poll was commissioned by Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), a conservative group that advocates lower taxes and limits on the government's taxing power.

ATR, which has supported e-cigarettes for years. It commissioned a 2019 poll of vaping users to show President Donald Trump the political risks he would take by banning flavored vaping products. ATR also sponsors the current We Vape We Vote '22 Tour.

More Republicans than Democrats oppose restrictions, but they are close

Many of the answers about specific policies suggest that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support taxes and regulation - even policies that limit e-cigarette users' ability to access their preferred products. This finding suggests that a large proportion of vaping people know little about the issue, and that most are not immune to news coverage that overrepresents an anti-vaping stance. (Keep in mind, too, that half of voters surveyed don't vape daily, and about half still smoke.)

A whopping 48 percent of vape voters support a ban on online sales of vaping products, with Democrats (58 percent) more likely than Republicans (37 percent) to support it. More closely, but still disturbingly, 44 percent of respondents support banning e-cigarette flavors, including 51 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans.

Some of the responses on specific policy positions reflect a general distrust of federal agency regulation among Republicans (and support for it among Democrats), but a large share of Republicans are also surprisingly supportive of restrictive rules.

Most people who use e-cigarettes are just as susceptible to misinformation that shapes the public discourse around e-cigarettes as the general population.

For example, 62% of voters who have used an e-cigarette in the past 30 days support requiring all e-cigarette products to follow FDA rules that could take many products off the market. While more Democrats (73 percent) support this position, 52 percent of Republicans agree with it as well.

Even the most common vaping users do not identify themselves as vaping users, in the sense that they are part of a movement, and they are not particularly knowledgeable about vaping issues or are politically active on behalf of the rights of vaping users. Most people who use e-cigarettes are just as susceptible to misinformation that shapes the public discourse around e-cigarettes as the general population.

However, they know they like vaping. And they intend to keep doing so -- even if lawmakers and regulators try to stop them.

29% of e-cigarette users would ignore the flavor ban and buy illegal products

Despite their respective responses to particular policy positions, registered voters on both sides who use e-cigarettes generally believe that the federal government should not prevent them from using e-cigarettes as a harm reduction tool.

In response to statements that the government should not create barriers for adults who want to use alternatives to cigarettes, such as taxes and restrictions on e-vaping products, a whopping 83 percent of those who used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days strongly or somewhat agreed, including 86 80 percent of Democrats and 80 percent of Republicans. Eighty-four percent agreed that the government should not deny adults the right to enjoy legal products.

If the government does try to eliminate their e-cigarette option, what will they do? If Congress or the FDA banned flavored e-cigarette products, 21 percent said they would use unflavored (possibly tobacco-flavored) e-cigarettes. Another 31 percent said they would switch to tobacco products (a group that probably includes many of the 46 percent who still smoke).

But 29 percent responded that they would find another way to get flavored products. Another way is to participate in the black market.

Nearly a third of vape registered voters -- about 10 percent of the entire voting population -- are willing to ignore any federal ban on flavored vape products.

This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone - least of all the FDA - because the market for gray and black e-cigarette products is already up and running. When the FDA removed its enforcement discretion to protect vaping products based on flavored studs nearly three years ago, a significant portion of e-cigarette consumers responded by switching to flavored disposable vaping.

The single-use e-cigarette market is now approaching the size of the legal market in the convenience store/gas station segment. If Congress or the FDA banned condiments outright, the need for them wouldn't go away. Instead, the grey and black markets will expand rapidly to meet demand.

Congressional candidates should take note of the survey response. Nearly a third of vape registered voters -- about 10 percent of the entire voting population -- are willing to ignore any federal ban on flavored vape products.

Whatever a candidate's personal beliefs about e-cigarettes, ignoring the reality that a large portion of the public is willing to ignore the law and engage in illegal businesses to obtain flavored products should give them pause when it comes to passing laws. Congress should embrace reality and acknowledge the aspirations of this important constituency.