New Consumption year -end inventory

On the last day of 2022, Blue Cave launched the top ten conjectures in the 2023 e -cigarette industry.

The era of e -cigarettes and the era of wealth has passed. In the future, it is either to endure the national standard tobacco, or to lick the blood to sneak the fruits, or just close the store to clean up.

The years are rolling into the sea, and everyone will make their own choices.

It has passed in 2022. I do n’t want to remember too much and I do n’t want to miss it excessively, but the electronic cigarette industry still has some unsolved mysteries. The blue hole summarizes the top ten conjectures in 2023 from all aspects of the industry chain. Look at it at the end of the year. What will be fulfilled?

The top ten conjectures are only one family, and you are welcome to leave a message to discuss.

The number of this text is 6,300 words, and the reading time is expected to be about 15 minutes.

Top ten conjectures, you can see if there is a topic that you are interested in, and then you can pull down to the corresponding location to read.

Guess 1: Will the national standard tobacco products get better?

At present, the products sold by the licensed stores are all national standard tobacco flavors of major brands. This is also the most main product in the market. Therefore, whether the national standard product is "good", it will determine the development trend of the entire electronic cigarette industry in 2023.

Whether it is easy to smoke depends on when the 101 whitelist of the electronic cigarette national standard is performed.

According to the owner's survey released by Lan Cave, it is hoped that the national standard tobacco taste will become the wish of many shopkeepers.

The main reason is that the products that have been tried at present are not added with cold -flavored agents, and some whitening lists cannot be added to the upper limit. As a result, the current taste of tobacco is difficult to draw, and users do not buy the bill.

Not to mention the predicted national standard tobacco taste is a mixed flavor based on tobacco.

There is also a paradox between the electronic cigarette national standard and supervision. If it is easy to smoke, then the supervision tobacco control effect will be affected. If it is not good, then from the perspective of taxation, the industry contribution is limited.

Judging from the current situation, if the national standard tobacco taste standards continue to stricter, the user's loss rate will further intensify, which will lead to more owners of the certification stores closed, and the upstream brands will be difficult to operate, resulting in a large number of factories idle.

Finally guess:

Blue Cave is expected to be improved at a certain time in 2023, and the national standard tobacco taste may be improved. For example, a cooling agent can be added. For example, it can be added according to the dose and category specified in the 101 whitelist.

Conjecture 2: Will illegal electronic smoke rampant be curbed?

Illegal electronic cigarettes such as all -time, fakes, and disposable fruit flavors have almost lay down the maintenance shop's main shop.

Although the domestic cigarettes have been officially banned from October 1st, because law enforcement has not kept up, there are many sources of illegal production, and various fruit electronic cigarettes, milk tea cups, cola cans, cola cans, cola cans, and cola cans can still be easily bought in the market. It can be said that it can continue to be rampant, which has caused very serious violations to the owner of the holding of the native tobacco products.

At the same time, these one -time design of these more and more children'sization has not achieved the purpose of electronic cigarette supervision. Therefore, how to truly ban the sale of fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes will be a very severe problem in 2023.

Law enforcement cases that truly have been in the effectiveness of supervision have begun, which has also made many shop owners see the hope that the market may get eliminated.

Recently, Zhejiang announced that the illegal fruit flavor of illegal fruits, such as milk cups, cola can and other illegal fruits was seized, and the amount involved exceeded 30 million yuan, and 17 people were arrested.

The report shows that the actions of the public security police and tobacco inspectors were dispatched on the day, divided into 22 arrest groups, and implemented simultaneously in Cixi, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places. 35 plastic sealing machines, 7 printing machines, 50 printing templates, more than 130,000 packaging boxes, nearly 100 barrels of electronic smoke oil, 8 tons of other supporting auxiliary materials, seized brand counterfeit electronic cigarettes, milk cups and cola cups such as ELFBAR and other brands There are more than 70,000 new type of electronic cigarettes.

After investigation, since October 2022, the criminal suspect Wang (pseudonym) and others are engaged in illegal and criminal activities of counterfeiting electronic cigarettes such as ELFBAR. The gang has a complete, mature and strict organizational structure. After the raw materials are planted in Guangdong, they are sent to somewhere in Ningbo for marking and packaging, and then sold to home and abroad through agents.

This is a big case seized after the real supervision.

The law enforcement procedures for electronic cigarettes are almost prepared. The "Management Rules of Electronic Cigarettes Involved in the Case" has taken effect. The limited delivery of express delivery has taken effect. The law enforcement procedures have not yet entered into force.

According to Lan Cave, in fact, many illegal electronic cigarette business cases have been seized in various places, but they have not been disclosed. People in the industry have said that only by controlling the source of illegal production, can the nation ’s electronic cigarette cities be controlled.

At present, more than 400 electronic cigarette companies in Shenzhen have not obtained a production license and more than 300 in Dongguan. How these companies and their personnel are effectively supervised. It is worth paying attention to in 2023.

Finally guess:

The blue hole expects that it is impossible to completely eliminate the black market transaction, but it can continue to break the big case and continue to work with the effect. Using a large case to deter the illegal criminals can curb illegal transactions. Getting smaller and smaller.

Conjecture 3: Some provincial capitals will not appear local electronic cigarette brands?

This conjecture is completely out of nothing, but it is due to the assumptions that we have considered the future fate of the 45 electronic cigarette brands that have been tried.

Data as of November 21 showed that the number of licensed licenses of domestic electronic cigarette brands has reached 45.

You know, domestic electronic cigarette users are about 10 million people. Do they need so many electronic cigarette brands? And it is just a product of tobacco -flavored.

We can look at the maps of tobacco brands in various provinces.

The map of tobacco brands shows that there are almost tobacco brands in various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, but the distribution of electronic cigarette brands is very concentrated. Not to mention the existence of the brand.

In this concentration, competition is bound to be fierce. Will the electronic cigarette brand consider landing in various provinces?

YOOZ grapefruit operation company and factory have actually settled in Bengbu, Anhui, and should be settled through investment promotion. Can other electronic cigarette brands also refer to learning? Do n’t focus on Shenzhen, go to all provinces in the country to find a mother's house, open branches and leaves, and have a chance to squeeze in Shenzhen?

Production can be placed in Shenzhen, but brand operations can be settled somewhere and become local electronic cigarette brands. It may have good policy support, but what returns the brand can bring to the local area is worth exploring.

Unlike Tobacco brands, electronic cigarette brands are private, how to solve identity problems, how to obtain support, and how to distribute interests.

Most brands do not have the opportunity to carry out national market services. This is cruel, but it is also realistic.

45 brands want to serve the whole country. Do you think this is possible?

Finally guess:

Blue Caves are expected to have more tail brands adopting grapefruit models, landing in a province, striving for support, and then surviving. Don't think about the whole country. You are in peace, a province is deeply cultivating, and it is also a strong user base.

Guess 4: Will there be only 5 e -cigarette brands in the end?

According to the recent many months of shop owners' surveys that Lan Cave, only 5 brands have become the first choice of shop owners and the first choice for users, and the proportion of the future brand will have a significant decline in the proportion of the future.

Therefore, some people have proposed that electronic cigarette brands that eventually survive in the domestic market may not be more than 5.

This conjecture is very bold.

The reason, the analysis of the blue hole, first, is currently not optimistic about the taste of the national standard tobacco. The products provided by the five and the 45 products provided by 45 are tobacco flavors, which is difficult to open differentiated competition.

The second is that the brand awareness will determine the owner's purchase and consumer purchase. Judging from the current situation, low -profile brands and new brands are almost no one. Moreover, electronic cigarettes do not allow advertising. It is difficult for a low -profile brand to have the opportunity to kill the siege. Unless there are some policies and resources tilt, all brands are currently private brands and are in the same competitive position. Get particularly obvious support.

Even if the policy and resource support are obtained, the user is finally paid. Users do not recognize it, even if there are many points for laying, the ultimate significance is not great.

The third is that the current illegal market products are rampant, and the illegal water flavor of multi -flavored illegal water directly crushes any national standards, making the ranking of the compliance market's ranking meaningless. You are still desperately for selling a few tobacco to persuade the owner of the store to buy. I bought the fruit flavor from the micro -business channel without the power.

Many brands who have obtained licenses have also dilemma.

It can be seen from public data that many electronic cigarette brands, including INS silverstone and Wel whales, have completed the change of major shareholders. The total of each family has not made any market share in the era of freedom. Now the regulatory restrictions may not have to do it.

At the same time, after the compliance, the fruit is not available, and the company lacks cash flow. Of course, this is just theoretically. In fact, some shop owners have reported that some compliance brands are secretly giving the store owner into the national standard with a fruit flavor.

Finally guess:

Blue Cave agreed that there will not be too many electronic cigarette brands on the market, but the time may not be concluded in 2023.

Conservative conservatives, at least 30 licensed brands will be in a unable to compete in 2023. If a little bit of aggressive conjecture, the top ten will be mentioned in the top ten in 2023, and the remaining brands will not enter smoke.

Besides, after the Spring Festival, there may be licensed brands.

Conjecture 5: Will compliance electronic cigarettes complete the quota?

This is another very hearty conjecture.

According to the current electronic cigarette production license of various brands, the production scale will be stated on it, which is the production quota within one year.

According to the data compiled by the blue hole, the top fifteen electronic cigarette brands that can be basically determined can be displayed as shown above.

The quota can be regarded as the brand production and sales of the brand. If you sell it, you can apply for allocation, but you have to complete a indicator.

If you do not reach a quota target within the validity period, the quota next year will decrease. If you reach your goal, the quota of at least the next year will be flat, or it will rise according to the situation.

If you complete the quota in advance during the validity period, you can also apply for a quota that takes up other unfinished quota brands, indicating that your quota will be increased next year.

According to the statistics of the Blue Cave, the production scale of the production of electronic cigarette brands that has been tried currently over trial is about 620 million, about 40 million internal sales of smoke, and about 15 million domestic cigarettes of domestic sales.

Fortunately, some brands have applied for domestic sales and export quotas. The domestic sales cannot be completed, and the exports can be changed.

Finally guess:

Judging from the role of quota, each brand will find a way to complete its one -year quota. If it is not completed, the quota will become lower and lower in the future.

However, the market is not that you can sell it if you want to sell. All products must be through the national unified trading platform, or domestic sales or exports.

Is there a situation that happened? In the end, the brand carried all the money, and paid the curve to find the owner of the holding shop to buy it. "Completed" the quota you received by himself, at least stabilize the quota of the next year, but you have to pay to buy yourself. How many brands and excess cash flows are done at the price of quota?

The answer is not optimistic.

Or just do activities crazy, buy one get one get one, and lose less. You see that this brand is crazy.

The quota is one of the means to regulate market competition and survival of the fittest. When you are unable to provide services, but you may have to support it, it may be to diverse.

Guess 6: Will the electronic cigarette service provider still exist?

The role of electronic cigarette service providers is actually very embarrassing.

Blue Cave has not been optimistic about the survival model and business model of service providers from the beginning.

The paradox of the service provider is that large brands do not need service providers to have the owner to book, and even if there is a service provider, there may be no shop owner to book even if there is a service provider.

In the current national standard market, the service providers can do limited, and the role is very unpleasant.

For brands, we must complete the ordering goals before getting service fees and commissions.

For the owner, you must lobby the goods to complete the goal given by the brand, but the problem is that the current purchase of the owner depends on the purchase of users.

If the user does not buy it, you spend thousands of shipments for the rebate or gift of a certain brand. In the end, you ca n’t sell it. Although you get hundreds of rebates, you finally find that you have taken thousands of dollars.

In the final analysis, the technical content of the service provider is low, and new value cannot be created. At most, it is a spear -spenting cylinder.

The biggest problem is that the upstream brand is not good, the downstream store owners are not selling well, and the service providers are sandwiched in the middle, and both ends are suffering.

Finally guess:

Lan Dong believes that for big brands, service providers still have a certain land value, but the hard -earned money in essence is equivalent to local outsourcing landing.

For small brands, it is not good for sales, and the service provider will not make money from you, and will eventually be scattered.

Some service providers revealed to the blue hole that after a month of life, they can only receive a service fee of 2800 yuan from the brand.

2800 yuan a month, which can be called a low -protection of electronic cigarettes.

Some brands only purchase goods in a certain municipality in a month. How can you say that this is rich for service providers? The service provider also has a headache. The small brand is not well -known, and there is no shop owner to buy.

Conjecture Seven: Does the Electronic Cigarette Foreign Trade Chamber of Commerce completely die?

The role of electronic cigarette foreign trade dealers is very embarrassing now.

No, it should be that after regulatory compliance, the role of foreign trade vendors is gone. After all links applying for permits, foreign trade companies found that they were gone.

Factors and brands can apply for a production license. Tobacco companies apply for wholesale licenses, shop owners apply for retail license, foreign trade vendors are equivalent to wholesale overseas, but on the trading platform, there is no such subject role, the game is over.

Electronic cigarette companies that only do foreign trade have not obtained a license. This situation is a bit panicked. It stands to reason that overseas markets only need to comply with the laws of the country, but if there is no license now, it cannot be used to the factory as a domestic body. Put the order.

Blue Cave learned that this type of foreign trade electronic cigarette companies are currently not a small number. If there is no license, the domestic subject can be placed. If the overseas company is registered to place an order, it becomes a direct export of the factory. , Logistics tracking and export tax refund and other tedious processes have caused expensive export prices, which are difficult to promote sales such as overseas electronic cigarette companies.

Obviously, it is a great thing to regulate the source of production. It is even more good to obtain a permit for enterprises with compliance with heads, management and production and operation. It can also continue to strengthen the world status of the electronic cigarette industry.

However, from the latest reply from the National Tobacco Monopoly Agency, there is indeed no main body of foreign trade.

At that time, the legend of Shenzhen's foreign trade electronic cigarette wholesale four dragons was still in the ear, and now some foreign trade wholesalers have been forced to leave.

Some of the foreign trade wholesalers who have transformed fast, some are doing overseas factories, some do one -time killing all directions, and they have become more to fodder.

Finally guess:

Judging from the current situation, this role is gone, and it is close to death.

Although foreign trade wholesalers are familiar with certain overseas policies and have network resources in the local area, because they do not have products and factories, the role is embarrassing, and it can only be turned into zero. Add bricks to the career of the electronic cigarette.

Conjecture eight: Will the e -cigarette store allow mixed operations?

This is the pain in the mind of the electronic cigarette shop.

Unlike the traditional cigarette sales point, the electronic cigarette store only allows the sale of electronic cigarettes. The rest of the category cannot be sold for the time being. You can also sell it with multiple categories, but you will expand into a convenience store. Practice of dumplings.

From the perspective of cigarette sales points, at least the tobacco and alcohol are not separated. It is not necessary to say that the sales of supermarkets and convenience stores are mixed.

However, electronic cigarette shops can only sell electronic cigarettes at present. Compared with cigarette shops, they can sell wine and drinks. This is really a bit unfair.

Only selling one product means that the efficiency is not high and the cost is still low. If this product is not sold well, it may be eaten all month.

Finally guess:

To be honest, it is difficult to guess. On the one hand, Blue Cave hopes that electronic cigarette shops can obtain the same multi -product rights as cigarette shops, but on the other hand, the status of electronic cigarettes has just been legalized and wants to sit flat with cigarettes. Is it a bit a bit? Can't figure out your status?

Lan Dong believes that the e -cigarette shop in 2023 will still be a single product operation. The dream of mixed operations. Think about it, and wait.

Guess Nine: Will the cigarette shop sell electronic cigarettes at the same time?

Every conjecture to the owner is very cruel.

No one is afraid of the e -cigarette shop owner, so he is afraid of traveling. Afraid of micro -business selling fruits, all -in -one, grabbing the national standard market. Afraid of Uncle Wang's cigarette shop next to the cigarette shop, he suddenly sold electronic cigarettes and grabbed his business.

From the current policies, cigarettes and electronic cigarettes are one of the two. Occasionally, there are two doors next to the owner of the smart shop, applying for cigarettes and electronic cigarette retail licenses, and finally touched the partition. Selling electronic cigarette again.

But is it possible to sell electronic cigarettes to cigarette shops in 2023?

The answer is, it's hard to say.

On September 30, the first time that the electronic cigarette production and operation entity applied for a license instructions for the first time, "If there is any adjustment, the notice will be notified", scaring the owner's cold sweat.

This is equivalent to leaving an open approach.

Finally guess:

We assume that if the electronic cigarette shops are closed, if the electronic cigarette shop is not well operated, will there be a new retail industry to access it?

Of course, this situation may happen. Cigarette shops have natural smoking passenger flow, and the pressure of multi -category operations is not great. Compared with shops that only sell electronic cigarettes, the efficiency and survival pressure of cigarette shops are significantly lower. I can't hold it, and I am afraid that the cigarette shop will get an electronic cigarette.

Will time be in 2023? There are possibilities, and quite big.

At present, the retail license issued in various places may be around 50%, and the situation of closing the store due to weakness is unable to support closing stores. Now even supermarkets and convenience stores have begun to apply for electronic cigarette retail. The larger.

Guess 10: Will the electronic cigarette industry be peak in 2023?

In the past, the electronic cigarette industry always had a peak and a valley. Will the electronic cigarette industry after the supervision began, will it be the development form of the peak valley?

Although the competent authorities have given legal status to the electronic cigarette industry, the purpose of supervision is to curb the market and scale. If the explosive growth of the previous trough is occurred, I am afraid that there will be no.

Behind the steady development means a decrease in the growth rate, which means that the elimination cycle means continuous shuffling, and eventually form a stable situation, whether it is a brand or retail.

Finally guess:

In 2023, the sales of various brands will experience a cliff -like decline and peak? Want to be beautiful. The valley has just begun.

When no one pays attention to the electronic cigarette industry, this may be the norm of life.

Concluding remarks: right and non -success or failure turn empty

When you abandon you in the time, you won't even say goodbye.

We have witnessed the departure of many brands, and we also witnessed the abandonment of many shopkeepers.

I hope that there will be a day to meet again, everyone can sit and talk about the grand occasion of the electronic cigarettes of the year.