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Lost the "soul", is there still a play in electronic cigarettes?

Lost the "soul", is there still a play in electronic cigarettes?

2022-10-13

The "electronic cigarette country standard" was introduced, and electronic cigarettes ushered in the strongest supervision after the online ban.


On October 1, 2022, the State Administration of Market Supervision, together with the National Tobacco Monopoly Agency, organized the "Electronic Tobacco Mandatory National Standards" (hereinafter referred to as the "national standard") formulated by the National Tobacco Standardization Technology Commission and related technical institutions.


In summary, this round of electronic cigarette regulations include: starting from October 1, market entities including electronic cigarette manufacturers, retail stores and other electronic cigarette production and operation shall obtain tobacco monopoly licenses and conduct electronic cigarette transaction management platforms. Trading; at the same time, the "national standard" stipulates that "electronic smoke chemicals should not be induced by minors, and should not make the product characteristic flavor show other flavors except tobacco. Weician cigarettes were completely banned.


In fact, before the official implementation of the above -mentioned new regulations, the State Tobacco Monopoly Agency had released the "Administrative Measures for Electronic Cigarettes" as early as March 11, and dealers have carried out crazy marketing and stocking for more than half a year.


After 90s, Jiao Jiao smoked electronic cigarettes for two or three years. It was originally to quit traditional cigarettes, but then he was addicted to the electronic cigarette of mung bean paste. In recent months, the merchant has suggested that he stock up and Jiao Jiao refused, "If the market does not sell fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes, I will not smoke, and I am thinking of quitting smoking. The unavoidable environment just urged yourself to quit smoking. "


He felt that it was a good thing for the sale of fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes. In the past, the electronic cigarette was smoked. The hint in the subconsciousness was that the electronic cigarette of the fruit flavor was not traditional tobacco. There was no psychological burden. Now it is just restrained. In addition, even if there is a tobacco -flavored electronic cigarette, he has been used to fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes in recent years.


Users do not have fruit electronic cigarettes, retail stores do not have electronic cigarettes that can be sold by users, and both parties are caught in the wait -and -see industry. For large and small electronic cigarette brands, the original channel is zero to lose fruit electronic cigarette products.


The electronic cigarette industry, which has been in the electronic cigarette industry for a few years, has the only way to make a trick in front of the "national standard" tobacco -flavored electronic cigarettes?


"Fruit" electronic cigarette was banned, and the dealer panicked

The 26 -year -old Lan Rui did not smoke the traditional cigarette. He came into contact with the electronic cigarette two years ago. At that time, he was under the pressure of his work. Unlike traditional smoke. I don't know if it was a psychological effect. He felt a little relaxed at the time, so he began to smoke electronic cigarettes. His favorite was lemon ice and yogurt flavor.


In the past two years, when the work pressure is high, he may remove three or four cigarette bombs a week. When exaggerated, Lan Rui worked in front of the computer and pumped electronic cigarettes, and a movement maintained for several hours. Every month, he spends about 500 yuan on electronic cigarettes.


In May and June, before the fruity electronic cigarette was about to be banned, many merchants propagated and encouraged stocks. Lan Rui stocked more than 20 boxes and spent nearly 2,000 yuan. Until now, there are only four or five smoke bombs. Lan Rui is very resistant to traditional cigarettes. "I rely only on two favorite flavors, and I can't accept the smell of tobacco."


Recently, Lan Rui began to plan to quit the electronic cigarette. He went to the company not to bring electronic cigarette during the day, and only smoked two before going to bed at night. "Because there are not many smoke bombs, I am also controlling. I don't have any feeling of smoking during the day, I feel that I am not so addicted to smoke, and I can control it."


Lan Rui's friends first turned from traditional cigarettes to electronic cigarettes. Recently, he mixed the remaining fruit electronic cigarettes with traditional cigarettes, and planned to return to traditional cigarettes in the future. There is no turning to tobacco -flavored electronic cigarette because of the price problem, more than 30 yuan of smoke bombs are not cheap than traditional cigarettes, and the electronic cigarette experience without fruity flavor has not improved. He thinks it is not cost -effective.


Rong Rong is a girl who has smoked fruit electronic cigarettes for two years. She noticed that some channels can still buy fruit electronic cigarettes after the ban on sale, but the price is too high. The same electronic cigarette bullet, a box of 20 yuan is more expensive than the counter. In the future, you will quit smoking. After all, for girls, the smell of tobacco is too bad. "


The survey found that young male office workers, young female consumers, and adult students are the "three main force" of electronic cigarette consumer groups. This kind of population is generally obsessed with fruity electronic cigarettes. Today, the electronic cigarettes that have lost the "soul" may immediately lose most of the supporters.


The situation is not optimistic on the dealer. Electronic cigarette agent Tang Chaoying has entered the electronic cigarette industry since 2019 and has opened 16 stores in Wuhan. "A total investment in a store is nearly 100,000 yuan, including deposit and prepaid rent. The electronic cigarette industry can basically be regarded as zero -cost opening, which is not easy to lose money."


However, after the overall operation, Tang Chaoying is losing money, because he has been input and fierce market competition. In order to get the provincial general agent, he has no agent to please. The market share is greater.


By 2021, he transformed the master as a wholesale. The main brands of the agent were grapefruit, magic flute and Ono. He also got the authorization of more than 30 other brands, tried the model of the brand collection store, became a national chain, and opened to join. The new rules were also in the stage of expansion and loss. In 2021, he lost more than 4 million yuan.


As soon as the new regulations come out, the role of the provincial agent and wholesalers like Tang Chaoying has no room for existence. At present, he has completely stopped the wholesale business, the company has also reduced personnel, and only one retail store has left one. , Set up some national standard electronic cigarettes, "Maintain it first, and then observe whether there are new opportunities. If not, you don't have to persist."


However, the market is not so fast. "In the past few months, many dealers have crazy creation of anxiety and stocking. At present, there are still many fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes circulating in the market. As far as I know, the inventory in the hands of dealers and users should be maintained for another three months. The problem, but the upstream manufacturers are no longer allowed to produce fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes. The real market situation may not be prominent until the end of the year. "


There should be many stores closed next. In addition to being unable to obtain a business license, it is not unable to operate. He calculated a account. In Wuhan, the rent and manpower of a store cost nearly 20,000 yuan in all aspects. To be tied, a box of smoke ammunition for 100 yuan per month will sell for 500 boxes. A consumer draws five boxes a month, and there must be 100 loyal users. "Can you maintain 100 heavy customers who can accept the" national standard "electronic cigarette within three kilometers? I think it is difficult." He analyzed.


Daqiang operates grapefruit electronic cigarettes in Nanjing. According to him, in Nanjing, the rent and labor cost of small electronic cigarette retail stores is about 10,000 yuan per month. In his early 50 yuan, gross profit was 40%-50%, and net profit exceeded 20%. His monthly revenue was around 50,000 yuan.


In the past few years, selling electronic cigarettes was more profitable. By 2021, the income status was not very good, because some micro -business or other channels sold goods at the price lower than physical stores, which has a great impact on physical stores. Now adding 36%of tobacco taxes, the profit margin of retail stores is further squeezed. "I will wait and see. At present, it is more pessimistic, and I will see if there will be a new turn in the next few months."


Although the sales of retailers before the new regulations are good, everyone knows that this is "the last crazy". Now that it is almost half in October, Daqiang only sells more than 1,000 yuan. On the one hand, because of the more users in the past few months, the e -cigarettes of tobacco -flavored electronic cigarettes have not yet been accepted by most people. There are very few customers who buy national standard electronic cigarettes. Some of the middle -aged and elderly smokers who quit traditional cigarettes, and some are instead of using electronic cigarettes when they cannot smoke traditional cigarettes in the office and other places, but the number of such customers is very small.


Users, retailers, and agents of electronic cigarettes are trapped in pessimism.


The brand is re -innovated, compliance and innovation are new propositions

After the new regulations, the electronic cigarette industry returned to zero overnight.


The first step of the electronic cigarette industry practitioners today is compliance, that is, get the corresponding license.


In addition to the brand's need to hold a certificate, in terms of channels, all electronic cigarette retail stores must obtain the e -cigarette retail license issued by the Tobacco Bureau. There are no more brand specialty stores. The platform purchases national standard e -cigarettes.


According to data from the "Blue Book of Electronic Smoking Industry in 2021", as of the first half of 2022, there were more than 1,500 domestic electronic cigarette manufacturing and brand companies, including nearly 200 brand companies, nearly 100,000 electronic cigarette supply chains and peripheral service companies, and electronic cigarettes. There are 190,000 retail outlets. In the past few years, Yueke has more than 15,000 retail stores, and other brands have also had hundreds to thousands of offline retail stores in the form of specialty stores or collection stores.


There are only more than 40 electronic cigarette brands currently obtained. According to the planning planning of e -cigarette retail points released across the country, the total amount is expected to be only about 50,000. In other words, in the short term, nearly 140,000 retail stores in hundreds of electronic cigarette brands will be eliminated.


In terms of products, the electronic cigarette brand has been committed to the research and development of various flavors. The more popular ones are mung beans, cola, watermelon flavor, as well as dozens of kinds of purple potato, green mang, blueberry, lemon tea, mint, old popsicles, etc. Essence According to many people in the industry, more than 95%of the previous electronic cigarette sales are fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes. Few people choose tobacco -flavored electronic cigarettes.


Nowadays, all fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes are banned, and tobacco -flavored electronic cigarettes must be listed through the "national standard". The entire industry was beaten back to the same point and started answering the same question. This explains why the entire electronic cigarette industry is full of pessimism.


However, Sun Haiming, the founder and CEO of the electronic cigarette brand Polan, predicts that the trend of the entire e -cigarette in the global market is inevitable and irreversible.


Damoris's sword that domestic electronic cigarette practitioners are most worried about the policy. He analyzed that the tobacco bureau built the same national unified procurement platform and special e -cigarette department for electronic cigarettes. Specialized warehouses and logistics. This proves that the domestic market will be a trend of stability and sustainable development in the future.


However, a very cruel reality is that factories, brands, channels, and retail merchants are shuffling. "There are many sounds of singing in the entire industry because most people are washed away."


Sun Haiming believes that the industry prospects of electronic cigarettes are clear, and the exploration process is tortuous. "In the future, only cigarettes and electronic cigarettes are placed in front of consumers. When the 50th, 60th, and post -70s smokers gradually withdraw from the mainstream consumer market. cigarette."


As for the taste problem, he acknowledged that the current suspension of fruit -flavored electronic cigarettes will have an impact on users who are accustomed to these flavors. "In the next step, there is no addiction to nicotine, just a young young man who smokes electronic cigarettes for coolness and handsomeness will completely bid farewell to the electronic cigarette. Those smokers who are addicted to nicotine will not change because of the change of taste changes. ","


Sun Haiming analyzed that the brand side faced the first is genetic challenges in the domestic market. Electronic cigarettes were a 3C digital tide product in pure markets. It is now included in the scope of tobacco monopoly. The category logic has changed. According to the logic of tobacco, it is necessary to cultivate brand cultivation.


Second, the micro change is that the retail channel has changed. At present, a large number of retail stores are watching and watching. "I predicting the new channels will be a traditional tobacco and alcohol store, because the policy mentioned in the policy 'e -cigarette retail stores cannot increase cigarette sales, but cigarette retail stores increase electronic cigarette sales The category time will be notified again. After this new channel is opened, the development of the entire market will accelerate. "


At present, the top brands are the top priority to make color in "composition of the same question".


Recently, Yue's national standard product Phantom "Star River Dream" atomizer, the phantom "Forgotten River has 25" and the phantom "Forest Favorite Mountain Bake 53" atomizer has been sold on the shelves. Two flavors have different fragrances based on the flavor of tobacco, which are innovative in product taste.


In terms of business strategy, Sun Haiming's plan is a differentiated mid -to -high -end route. "In the future comprehensive retail store, there is no probability that it will not only sell products at a price level, but also meet the needs of some high -end customers. Make differentiation in profit and other aspects. "


As for which one can take the lead in highlighting the siege, we have to wait for the next market feedback.


Where is the electronic cigarette?

Electronic cigarettes are not new, and they were born as early as 2003. But this industry was detonated from 2018 to 2019.


Ono Electronic cigarette launched by Luo Yonghao, coupled with Edison Chen's endorsement, entered the public vision at a high profile; Zhu Xiaomu, an employee of Hammer Technology No. 1, founded Fulu Electronic Cigarette and attracted much attention; In 2019, three rounds of financing were received, and the valuation rose to more than $ 2 billion.


Capital spawns, entrepreneurs are active, and the electronic cigarette industry has embarked on a fast track.


In October 2019, the electronic cigarette "online banning order" was implemented, and the industry was first undergoing strong policy supervision. Subsequently, various brands transferred their focus and held a lot of stores nationwide.


After just 3 years, the Yuexin parent company Wuxin Technology was listed on the US stocks. On the day of listing, the stock price increased by 145.92%, with a market value of 45.8 billion U.S. dollars, or about 300 billion yuan. The prospectus and financial report shows that in 2018, Yue carved 500,000 tobacco rods and 5.9 million smoke bombs, with revenue of 132 million yuan. In 2019, the revenue rose to 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 1073.48%, and revenue in 2020 reached 38.2. 100 million yuan, an increase of 146.5%. By 2021, Yueyou revenue was 8.521 billion yuan, and net profit was 2.028 billion yuan.


According to the data from the research institution Euromonitor, in the three years from 2019 to 2021, the annual compound growth of the domestic industry of electronic cigarettes is close to 60%. By 2021, the domestic industry scale is close to 20 billion yuan.


In the first two quarters of 2022, Yueya's revenue and net profit fell for the first time. The company's explanation was "changes in regulatory regulatory. We start the sales of new products that meet national standards in the new trading system stipulated by the regulatory agency."


As of October 11, Yuejie's stock price had fallen to $ 1, with a total market value of 1.548 billion US dollars, and the market value of US $ 45.8 billion in highlights had evaporated nearly $ 44 billion.


In the eyes of practitioners, the pattern of the electronic cigarette industry is divided into pleasure and others. Yue Kei settled in the industry's first position with more than 60%of the market. Among other companies, grapefruit, Platinum, Ono, Fulu, Xuejia, Magic Flute and other brands have a certain reputation, and the volume is not much different.


After this new regulations, Tang Chaoying estimated that the overall scale of the electronic cigarette industry will decline by 70%-80%in the future. Because the users of electronic cigarettes are still mainly young new smokers, it has only become popular in recent years. Most of the young people are not obsessed with nicotine in electronic cigarettes, but they are addicted to some fruits and ice and cool experiences. In fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact It is almost the same as drinking milk tea and coffee. "It is more difficult for young people to accept tobacco -flavored electronic cigarettes. Most young people are not addictive, and they are likely to quit."


Some people speculate that users will turn to the alternative of electronic cigarettes. At present, there are already products such as "taste sticks" and "flavor rods". The principle is to add a filter stick to the national standard electronic smoke bullet, which brings the effect of fruit flavor and coolness. Although the taste is not e -cigarette, it can improve the experience to a certain extent.


Sun Haiming believes that the so -called flavor stick can be called the supporting product of electronic cigarettes. "I tend to think that supervision will not allow such disguised electronic cigarette flavors to flow and flow."


In today's electronic cigarette industry, the first way out is to make technological innovation in the field of national standard tobacco flavor. How to restore the taste of tobacco as much as possible without the standard and adjust the softness to better, it is a test of the brands.


Ruili Technology is an electronic cigarette research and development service company. Wu Pengfei, the founder of the company, mentioned that the current market situation is embarrassing. It may lose the young smoke of the younger, and it is not accepted by old smokers. However, there are more than 300 million smokers in China, and there are about 100 billion smokers in the world. The entire market is very large. However, the attention of many companies has not yet turned to tobacco taste. In the long run, in the future, in the future If electronic cigarettes and electronic cigarette products are accepted by mainstream smokers, its consumption volume will greatly increase.


Ruili Technology has been doing atomization research and development of tobacco. "We have been optimistic about the industry for a long time. In the future, electronic cigarettes will form a complementary relationship with traditional cigarettes, which can be used as consumer substitutes for old smokers to a certain extent."


In the crowd, electronic cigarettes may lose some young groups, or they may also strive for some old smokers. Many practitioners mentioned that with standardized operations and unified supervision, the public opinion of electronic cigarettes will gradually improve, and some stubborn old smokers in the past will look at the electronic cigarettes again.


One of the opportunities for Tang Chaoying to be optimistic is to make a cigarette bomb for the cigarette rod, because currently the carving occupies most markets, and can focus on making some innovations in the taste of tobacco. As long as users accept it, they have the opportunity.


The second largest way out is the industry that the industry has been exploring. The challenge of electronic cigarettes is localized. It is necessary to be familiar with local products, users, channels, and culture, and quickly respond to the needs of the local market.


At this stage, from the upstream factories to the brand, to the terminal retail pattern, including supervision of the exploration of electronic cigarette management, the entire industry is reshaping.


At the same time, many companies in the industry are doing transformation, such as Yuejun exploring new business in coffee and oral care. The world's largest electronic cigarette factory and Hong Kong stock listed company Simo also have a medical industry layout in addition to electronic cigarettes. But they are only supplemented by the electronic cigarette business.


In the next step, the electronic cigarette industry needs to be improved, not only the product taste, compliance operating capabilities, channel capabilities, but also confidence in the entire market.


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